According to industry insiders, wheat flour prices have fallen by ₹5-7 per kilogram, particularly in the unbranded segment, while several branded atta players have also trimmed prices by ₹1.5-5 per kilogram. Although distributors note that the full impact of these cuts may take a few more weeks to trickle down to retail shelves, the trend is unmistakably downward.
Unbranded Atta Leads the Decline
Unbranded or loose atta has seen the steepest decline, benefiting consumers who purchase wheat flour in bulk. Retailers and distributors confirm that the fall in prices is currently more pronounced for chakki atta and unbranded loose flour sold in larger packages like 10kg or 50kg bags.
However, branded packaged atta, which constitutes only about 5-8% of India’s total 45-50 million tonnes (mt) annual atta market, has been slower to reflect these changes. “It takes time for branded players to recalibrate their shelf prices even if procurement costs fall. So far, we haven't seen major changes at the retail level," noted Dhairyashil Patil, president of the All India Consumer Products Distributors' Federation.
Queries sent to major branded companies such as ITC Ltd and Adani Agri Business Ltd (formerly Adani Wilmar) remained unanswered at the time of publication.
Wholesale Prices Correct Sharply
Wholesale markets, too, have witnessed significant corrections. In Delhi, wholesale atta prices have fallen sharply to ₹2,900–₹3,000 per quintal from the ₹3,600–₹3,700 range observed just a month ago. Meanwhile, wheat itself is trading between ₹2,600 and ₹2,700 per quintal in the Delhi market, compared to ₹3,300 a month earlier—a substantial drop that economists believe could play a critical role in taming food inflation.
Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India (RFMFI), attributed the price decline to the robust pace of harvesting. “The benefits of the new crop are beginning to flow to consumers. We expect the trend to continue as arrivals strengthen further,” he said.
Government Procurement Accelerates
The government's wheat procurement efforts have gathered significant momentum this season. Between March 15 and April 24, government agencies purchased over 19.85 million tonnes of wheat—an impressive 46% increase over the 13.85mt procured during the same period last year. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other agencies have set a target of procuring 31.2mt for the 2025-26 marketing season, compared to 26.6mt achieved in 2024-25.
This aggressive procurement strategy not only ensures that government stocks are replenished but also helps stabilize market prices by removing excess supply from open markets at a controlled rate.
Under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS), the FCI had earlier offloaded around 3mt of wheat starting mid-December 2024, offering it at ₹2,325 per quintal—slightly above the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,275 for the 2024-25 marketing season. Though these measures provided some temporary relief, the real turnaround in prices has only come with the full arrival of the fresh harvest.
Record Production on the Horizon
India’s wheat production during the 2024-25 rabi season is poised to hit a record 115.43 million tonnes, according to the agriculture ministry. This surpasses the 113.29mt harvested in the previous year and is largely attributed to favorable weather conditions and the absence of major crop-damaging events during the growing season.
Experts believe that this bumper harvest will not only keep wheat and atta prices stable in the short term but could also have a sustained cooling effect on food inflation through the remainder of the year.
Impact on Inflation and Food Security
The softening in wheat and atta prices comes as a major boon for the Indian economy, where inflation—particularly food inflation—has been a major concern. Retail inflation slowed to 3.34% in March, while food inflation eased sharply to 2.69% year-on-year from 3.75% in February. Economists view the ongoing wheat harvest and strong government procurement efforts as crucial factors that could further stabilize prices in the coming months.
“With a bumper wheat crop expected and robust procurement, we should see a stable-to-softening trend in food inflation. Wheat prices have a direct impact on staples like flour, bread, and biscuits,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.
However, industry watchers caution that the fall in wheat and atta prices may not immediately translate to cheaper prices for wheat-based products such as bread, biscuits, and other processed foods. "The prices of secondary products like bread and biscuits won’t necessarily come down in perfect sync with wheat prices," Sabnavis added, citing persistent processing, packaging, and distribution costs.
After months of volatility triggered by dwindling supplies and surging demand post-December 2024, the Indian wheat market appears to be entering a more stable phase. Government interventions via the OMSS and imposition of stock limits on traders and millers were critical in preventing runaway prices during the lean period. However, it is the arrival of the new crop—estimated to be one of the largest on record—that has provided genuine, market-driven relief.
Consumers buying unbranded and bulk atta are likely to see the immediate benefits of the price cuts, while those purchasing branded products may need to wait a few more weeks for companies to fully adjust retail pricing. Nonetheless, the overall trajectory remains encouraging for both consumers and policymakers battling inflation.